2009年1月22日星期四

平静时期的加沙文化生活----<新民周刊>

  哈马斯曾经让加沙人感到安心,并借此打败法塔赫赢得大选,如今却让许多加沙人又觉得不安全了。
  编译·艾 乐
  去年9月,加沙城中部,一个喧闹的街区昏暗店面里,金属货架上摆放着赞美哈马斯、法塔赫和伊斯兰圣战的录像带,上面积满了尘灰;在它们旁边,CD盒封面上的拉丁歌手詹妮佛·洛佩茨噘着嘴巴看着店里的顾客;货架上还有盗版DVD,像《通缉犯》、《全民超人汉考克》、《别惹佐汉》之类的电影还未正式在影院放映——《别惹佐汉》讲的是一个以色列突击队员为实现去纽约做发型设计师的梦想而伪造自己死亡的故事。
  这家叫做“新声音”的碟片店是32岁的Amer Kihail开的。在哈马斯统治下的加沙人也会买西方音乐唱片、看西方电影吗?“当然会了。”Amer的神情看起来不容置疑。
  哈马斯占据加沙,以色列封锁加沙,加沙人还时常要应付食物供应紧缺问题,他们在精神层面确实需要放松。在许多人看来,文化已经成为了生存必需品,尤其对年轻的加沙人来说,卫星电视、电脑网络、音带碟片是冲破检查哨点看世界的窗口,是联系阿拉伯世界、联系西方世界的桥梁。而哈马斯认为,为了更好地巩固自己的政权,控制加沙,文化是一个关键的争夺战场。从加沙一家普通唱片店,就能看出这片地区乃至周边区域对文化的倾向和选择。
  从文化角度而言,加沙和我们想象的很不一样。加沙人可能不喜欢以色列人,但会在以色列工作;他们不关注犹太文化,却向往体验西方生活,这点又和阿拉伯人不一样。这样的文化观也微妙地作用于加沙人的宗教和社会生活。
  离“新声音”不远,书商们的摊子上放着书皮泛黄的埃及《古兰经》,也有性教育书籍,阿拉伯译制书里,摊着几本笑话书。一个年轻女人走过来,指着宗教书籍问看摊子的瘦小男孩:“买这类书的人多吗?”“当然。”指指美国明星海报:“那这些呢?”“有啊!”
  入夜了,在一家名为“根”的家庭式餐馆里(餐馆门口贴着标语:请勿携带武器),食客们津津有味地吃着沙拉,瞥着墙上电视大屏幕里播放的美国喜剧《老友记》,其实大家都在等着看土耳其喜剧《Noor》(情节类似于美剧《豪门恩怨》)。每晚这个连续剧播映,大街上就几乎没人了,许多阿拉伯国家的情况也十分相似。找工作有压力,内乱不断,年轻人出不去,加沙人乐得在家看连续剧。哈马斯对此却颇为紧张,害怕外来的玩意儿会给巴勒斯坦家庭、社会带来不好的价值观,例如婚前性行为。
  自从二十年前最后一家电影院在暴乱中被烧掉以后,加沙就再没有电影播放厅了。2006年哈马斯赢得大选,巴勒斯坦分成了两部分:法塔赫所在的约旦河西岸,哈马斯占据的加沙地带。加沙似乎被孤立起来,唯一的文化机构“法国文化中心”难得组织一次艺术展和音乐咏诗会。
  但这并不代表加沙人不懂文化消费、不会自娱自乐。在一个闷热的午后,一群年轻好友围坐在加沙海滩游泳俱乐部的餐桌边,起劲地讨论着美剧《24小时》、《越狱》。不过女性不是穿着比基尼,而是T恤和长裤。
  在加沙城的另一头,20岁的Mothafar Alassar在一家录音室灌唱片。几年前,他和一个朋友组了一个乐队S.B.R。“我通过电视和网络爱上了饶舌,喜欢美国饶舌歌手Tupac、饶舌皇帝50 Cent以及法国的Keny Arkana。”他说,“起先大家都笑我,因为饶舌在加沙是新事物。‘法国文化中心’出钱给我制作唱片。最近,我们办了一个演唱会,700个人参加了。”
  结果,哈马斯把Alassar抓了起来,说他没有演出执照。后来,Alassar送了一张他的嘻哈音乐碟给那个满脸困惑的大胡子哈马斯官员,被释放了。“哈马斯不是反对艺术,他们只是不理解。”
  28岁的Rima Morgan也在唱片店里录制唱片:“我的家人很传统,不希望我从事唱歌工作,因为那意味着半夜出入派对场所,男男女女挤在一块。”这个披着白头巾、穿着紧身连衣裤的姑娘说自己听印度音乐,喜欢美国歌手席琳·迪翁,也听阿拉伯流行歌曲。至于电视剧,爱看《老友记》,当然还有《Noor》。
  哈马斯也推出自己的文化。漫画家Omayya Joha笔下的人物出现在许多阿拉伯杂志和报纸上。Omayya的第一个丈夫是哈马斯成员,被以色列士兵打死了。后来,她又嫁了一个哈马斯成员。“我一手拿着笔一手拿着枪”是她常说的话,“以色列人把我视为激进的反犹分子,但我不是。我只是不认为我们能拥有和平。没门。永远没有。”
  Omayya研究西方漫画,认为人物形象很重要。一度,亲法塔赫的一份报纸拒绝用她的作品了,让她很难过:“我得进行自我审查,预估什么是法塔赫不喜欢的。”
  反过来,这又恰是哈马斯对加沙人的要求:按我喜欢的来。
  Eyad Sarraj是加沙的一名精神病医师,他认为,哈马斯虽没有正式强行推广它的文化项目,但正在酝酿之中。“选举之后,我们以为哈马斯不会侵犯我们的个人自由,现在他们似乎在努力证明我们当初的想法是错的。他们还闯到我们家来。”Eyad指的是有一次,一群哈马斯警察闯到一个商人家里,把正在安静品酒的男人揍了一顿,还没收了酒。
  对此,一个哈马斯领导人Ayman Taha称这只是几个哈马斯成员犯的错误,不能代表整个哈马斯形象:“哈马斯没有对文化生活没有设任何限制。”边上的一家餐馆正在放美国爵士乐队Steely Dan的音乐,“我有用武力禁止他们播放西方音乐吗?没有。只要人们没有损害到我们自己的文化,随便做什么都可以。”
  话虽如此,文化摩擦仍不可避免。几年来,米娜画廊一直好好地承办着读诗会、影评会、西方艺术展等活动,结果哈马斯冲进来,说要扫除一切跟法塔赫有关的东西,结果现在米娜画廊只能办哈马斯所准许的活动。
  奇怪的是,哈马斯并没有整顿卖情色书籍的书摊,却管制了格调比较高雅的文化中心。加沙巴勒斯坦戏剧协会的负责人Jamal Al Rozzi觉得:“哈马斯想表现出没有控制个人生活或限制文化自由的样子,但与此同时,所有的事情都在它掌控下。哈马斯没有明确说我们不能做什么,但是你会却被揍一顿,关一个月监狱,外人都不知道你发生了什么事。”
  加沙南部城镇甘尤尼斯(Khan Yunis)和其他都市化区域比起来,实在显得很破败,这里也是哈马斯的一个根据地。在哈马斯接管之前,伊斯兰极端分子曾把当地卖流行音乐碟的店炸掉。
  店主Mazin Abdeen靠在新店门口,和边上卖冰激淋的小贩聊天:“爆炸之后,我们损失了很多,剩下的钱只够租原来一半大小的店面了。”和往常一样,又断电了,空气里飘散着食用油重复使用后发出的异味。Mazin新开的店里,摆放着手表、女式内衣、流行歌手的歌带。“现在哈马斯当政了,没有问题了,他们会保护我们。”
  听上去有点讽刺。哈马斯曾经让加沙人感到安心,并借此打败法塔赫赢得大选,如今却让许多加沙人又觉得不安全了。■

2009年1月17日星期六

Headline Roundup: 2009/01/16

Citi (C) Splits In Two (Clusterstock)

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vikram1009ap.jpgAs expected, Citi has announced a reorg this morning, so pundits everywhere can write their "death of the financial supermarket" articles once again.

The company says it will be split into Citi Corp and Citi Holdings.

Citi Corp is described as:

Citicorp’s Global Institutional Bank will consist of:

  • Global Transaction Services: an industry-leading business with a global network in about 140 countries.
  • Corporate and Investment Bank: world-class relationship banking offering full range of advisory, underwriting, lending and market-making services; now re-focused with a lower risk profile.
  • Citi Private Bank: global banking serving high-net-worth individuals, including about 30 percent of the world’s billionaires.

Citicorp’s Retail Bank will consist of:

  • Branded card businesses globally.
  • Regional consumer and commercial banking franchises in the U.S., Asia, Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, and the Middle East.

We anticipate that Citicorp will have assets of approximately $1.1 trillion and will be approximately 65 percent deposit funded.

Citi Holdings:

Citi Holdings will be a group of non-core businesses that include attractive long-term businesses with strong market positions. However, they do not sufficiently enhance the capabilities of Citi’s core business, and in many ways compete for its resources.

The Citi Holdings management team will seek to maximize the value of these businesses by running them well, restructuring and managing them through this tough economic cycle, and taking advantage of value-enhancing disposition and combination opportunities as they emerge. These businesses and assets will initially include:

  • Brokerage and asset management: including the 49 percent stake in Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, as well as Nikko Cordial Securities, Nikko Asset Management and Primerica Financial Services.
  • Local consumer finance: including CitiFinancial and CitiMortgage in the U.S., and consumer finance operations in Western Europe, Japan, India, Mexico, Brazil, Thailand and Hong Kong.
  • Special asset pool: will manage the assets covered by the loss-sharing agreement with the U.S. government parties in the ring-fenced portfolio; and other non-strategic assets.

Separately, the company has announced the details of its loss-sharing plan with the government, first established in November.

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金融超市就这样被瓦解了。不知道看到这样的情况,国内的招商和光大做何感想?作为BENCHMARK的Citi Financial Supermarket就这样以失败告终,国内的走势将怎么样呢?其他的我不敢说,我也不敢说这种趋势和发展势头会停止,但起码会减速。关注。





BofA's Loss: $1.79 Billion(Clusterstock)

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The same morning it revealed a $20 billion capital injection and a government loss backstop, Bank of America (BAC) says it lost $1.79 billion in the quarter. Until recently, some analysts had still been predicting a profit in the quarter (ha).

The results don't include Merrill, which lost a whopping $15 billion in the quarter.

This stat highlights how rapidly things deteriorated at the end of last year: "Nonperforming assets were $18.23 billion or 1.96 percent of total loans, leases and foreclosed properties, compared with $13.58 billion, or 1.45 percent, at September 30 and $5.95 billion, or 0.68 percent, at December 31, 2007.

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注意了,17亿这个数字并没有包括美林亏损的数据。而花旗和美国银行的亏损数据也导致了如下的猜测。


Will Citi (C) And Bank Of America (BAC) Be Nationalized? (Clusterstock)

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All week long we've been asking why Citi and JP Morgan moved their earnings announcements up by a week. Our strong suspicion was that executives at both banks had been tipped off by government officials that some kind of new intervention into the markets was coming. But what intervention?

The hottest rumor of the day is that the government is preparing to nationalize both Citi and Bank of America. The idea is that the government could put Citi and Bank of America into a conservatorship much like it did for AIG. The idea has been floating around since at least last October but today many people think nationalization could be imminent.

Sheila Bair, who runs the FDIC and would play a key role in a government takeover, issued a kind of "non-denial" denial  When asked by reporters earlier whether she anticipated nationalizing any large banks, Bair said: "I can't comment. I'd be very surprised if that happened." If there wasn't a plan in the works, would she just say that. Refusing to comment almost seems a confirmation. At least, that's how a lot of people are reading it.

If forced to give odds, we'd say that while Citi could be nationalized nothing as drastic will happen to Bank of America. It seems far more likely that Bank of America would receive something like the asset value guarantee

 Citi already got from the government.

In either case, we could be headed into another bailout weekend.

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对此不做评论。哈

土耳其央行大幅降息两个百分点

http://www.sina.com.cn  2009年01月16日 01:36  新浪财经

  新浪财经讯 北京时间1月16日凌晨消息,在本国经济增长速度减缓至六年以来最低水平及工业产值大幅下滑的形势下,土耳其央行周四决定将基准利率下调两个百分点,希望藉此避免经济陷入衰退。

  土耳其央行今天发表电子邮件声明称,该行已经将隔夜拆借利率下调了两个百分点,至13%的历史最低水平,这是该行连续第三次降息。此前调查显示,根据接受调查的20名经济学家的平均预期,该行将把这一基准利率下调75个基点。

  在过去三个月时间里,土耳其央行的累计降息幅度已经达到了3.75个百分点,加入了全球各大央行纷纷降息以促进经济增长的行列。据土耳其政府公布的数据显示,去年第三季度该国的经济增长速度下滑至六年以来的最低水平,11月份工业产值的跌幅则创下了七年以来的最高水平。

  摩根士丹利驻伊斯坦布尔的首席经济学家阿克索依(Tevfik Aksoy)称:“土耳其央行认为需求正大幅下降,物价压力已经完全不存在。”

  据土耳其政府公布的数据显示,去年12月份土耳其通胀率下降至10.1%,是八个月以来的最低水平。土耳其央行称,全球经济危机正令该国的本土和海外需求同时下降,通胀率将因此在未来几个月中进一步下滑。

  利率决定公布后,土耳其里拉兑美元汇率削减此前涨幅。截至伊斯坦布尔时间19:06为止,土耳其里拉兑美元汇率从昨天的1.6255里拉下跌至1.6223里拉。

  土耳其央行将在八个工作日内公布此次政策制定会议的纪要。(唐风)

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这个猛。一降就降两个百分点。
今天看了一些资料,土耳其的经济受国际贸易的活跃度影响很大,因为其地理位置的特殊性,是国际贸易的重要通道。与此类似的国家有巴拿马和埃及。这些和新闻本身关系可能不大,只是想把今天学到点的东西说出来 。哈啊。

Stimulus Pie Chart
INSERT DESCRIPTION
美国经济刺激计划中不同部分所占比例。先留着,以后会有用。


谢亚龙当董事长吓坏中体股民 毁完足球再毁股市?(SOHU)

 谢亚龙出任中 体公司董事长,引起中体产业的持股股民一片哗然,大家普遍对股价持悲观态度。

  昨天下午,从国家体育总局干部调整会议上传出消息,前足协掌门人谢亚龙调往中体产业集团股份有限公司任董事长,接替年满60岁退休的王俊生。

    谢亚龙的接任者则是前足协副主席南勇。

  股民得知这个消息后,普遍对该公司股票表示担心。

  截至今天早上,这样的讨论帖中有八成都认为谢亚龙的调任将连累中体的股价,其余的则表示“已经无所谓了”。有的股民甚至悲观地认为,中体的股价将因此跌至2元以下。

  还有股民留言把中体股票和中国足球联系在一起,“是不是想把中体搞得像国足一样臭?”“老谢来了,大家看一看中国足球,就知道中体的发展方向,撤……”

  此外,还有网友留言表示,早在数月前就已预言了谢亚龙将到中体“接班”的消息。

  中体股票昨日收盘价为5.52元,今日开盘价为5.44元。
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这条是个笑话,大家周末愉快 。

2009年1月10日星期六

Headline Roundup: 2009/01/10

一不小心就星期六了。按照最近养成的习惯WSJ,FT,GOOGLE READER一个接一个地打开准备看新闻然后总结,没想到因为周末都没什么新内容。考试我算是考糊涂了。不过,无论如何,有两条新闻值得分享。



Jobless Rate Hits 7.2%, a 16-Year High(New York Times)

The nation lost 524,000 jobs in December, reflecting a pervasive fear among employers that if they fail to shed workers quickly their companies may go under in a recession poised to become the worst since the 1930s.

The unemployment rate, meanwhile, jumped to a 16-year-high of 7.2 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statisticsreported on Friday. The growing army of the unemployed, at 11.1 million, is nearly 50 percent bigger than at the start of the recession a year ago.

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来自周末的坏消息。不知道中国目前的数据多少,前一段时间曾有沸沸扬扬的14%的数据,颇惊悚。据说是把下岗,待业之类的据说不被官方数据包括在内的失业人数算在内的数据,号称2000多万人待就业。另外,据说有很多无地农民工将滞留在城市内无所事事,形成安全治安隐患。
还有,对于奥巴马的经济刺激方案,有经济学家指出刺激方案主要目标应该是提高生产力并通过此增加就业,而不是单纯地为了制造就业而创造就业机会。的确,如果这样,那么将是资源的极大浪费,我们必然会走出这个经济衰退,我们现在所做的应该是让其代价最小。中国面临的人口压力和外部竞争条件让我们不得不考虑一些纯粹增加工作岗位的刺激计划,但美国也许不需要吧。



Citi (C) and Morgan Stanley (MS) Talk Brokerage Merger(CLUSTERSTOCK)

So say David Faber's sources. The deal would start as a JV, but might eventually results in all of Smith Barney (Citi's brokerage unit) coming under Morgan Stanley (MS) ownership. The idea is that MS would buy more and more of it each year. (The Journal has since just corroborated the report)

Obviously it's sketchy now, but it's a way for Morgan Stanley to take advantage of some consolidation, while Citi raises cash. As the once-trendy cash cows of Wall Street dissipate, Morgan Stanley has talked up its traditional low-margin brokerage, and the more of this business it can get, the more stable it becomes.

From the CNBC rush transcript: THE DEAL WOULD BE STRUCTURED AS A JOINT VENTURE, BUT  WOULD INVOLVE A PAYMENT FROM MORGAN STANLEY TO CITI OF AN UNDISLOSED SUM THAT WOULD GIVE IT THE LARGER STAKE IN THE JV., WHICH WOULD BE COMPRISED OF MORGAN'S BROKERAGE UNIT WITH 8 THOUSAND BROKERS AND SMITH BARNEY, WHICH HAS 11 THOUSAND BROKERS. IT WOULD CREATE THE NATION'S LARGEST SINGLE BROKERAGE, BSTING B OF A'S MERRILL UNIT WHICH HAS 16 THOUSAND BROKERS.

MORGAN STANLEY WOULD HAVE THE RIGHT OVER A PERIOD OF YEARS TO INCREASE ITS STAKE IN THE JV AND ULTIMATELY BUY ALL OF IT, ACCORDING TO SOURCES.

THE DEAL, IN EFFECT BECOMES A LONG TERM SALE OF SMITH BARNEY TO MORGAN STANLEY.


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为什么不称这个为第六次并购浪潮呢?一次因原有金融体系和信用体系崩溃,公司大范围面临流动性危机,而产生的并购浪潮。第六次第六次第六次。这就应该是第六次!



周末愉快!

2009年1月9日星期五

Headline Roundup:2009/01/09

英国央行降息50个基点(FT)

英国央行(BoE)昨日再次将利率下调0.5个百分点,至历史最低水平。该行表示,世界经济似乎正在经历异常剧烈的同步衰退。

1.5%的利率已是1694年英国央行成立以来的最低水平,但许多经济学家依然担心英国央行做得还不够,将会在今年晚些时候被迫追随美联储(Fed)采取非传统举措。

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降息的新闻这段时间已经看得有点无聊了,但这条还是能让人激动一下。历史最低水平!看这篇报道后有个评论说英镑触底,我觉得还有下行的空间,起码利率层面上还有下调空间。我也就随便猜猜。之前有段时间玩儿过模拟外汇,那时对汇率特敏感,现在就当看热闹了。



韩国双龙汽车申请法院接管 上汽持股51%(WSJ)

国双龙汽车(Ssangyong Motor Co.)周五称,该公司已经申请法院接管。这是公司面对经济减速试图进行重组的最新努力。按销量计算,双龙汽车是韩国第五大汽车厂商。

在韩国的司法体系中,此举仅次于破产。在接管过程中,法院将决定是否救助以及如何救助这家公司。由于销量下滑,该公司面临现金短缺的局面,无法支付工资和贷款。

如果法院决定让这家公司破产,那么双龙汽车将成为在此次经济危机中倒闭的首家韩国大公司。

双龙汽车股票周五已经在韩国证交所停牌。

中国上海汽车集团股份有限公司(SAIC Motor Co., 简称:上海汽车)持有双龙汽车51%的股份。双龙汽车上月曾向母公司呼吁提供资金。上周上海汽车提供了4,500万美元的注资,但这大大低于国营韩国产业银行(Korea Development Bank)等债权人所估计的2亿多美元。

上海汽车不愿再提供更多的资金,除非代表双龙汽车工人的工会接受重组公司的计划。

双龙汽车是韩国最小的一家国内汽车制造商,主要生产运动型多用途车。去年12月,其在韩国的汽车销量下降了45%,大大高于韩国整体汽车市场23%的降幅。


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上汽也太杠了吧?!这事出来有段时间了,之前韩国方面一直要求应该有母公司先提供救助,并将在母公司无法解决问题的情况下出手救双龙。一直以为上汽方面会弄出些东西来保护自己的投资。没想到硬是要和韩国政府死磕。结果玩儿了个搏弈论里特经典的一个结果:双败。都等着对方救,结果搞到这般地步。



NASDAQ Creates Index To Track Bailed-Out Companies(Clusterstock)

This is fun. The folks over at the NASDAQ have created a new index, OMX Government Relief (^QGRI), to track firms that have been bailed out by the government. The index will track, with equal weight, companies of at least $1 billion market cap, that have come to Washington cap in hand. It's mostly TARP companies, but not necessarily all. The index, which was set at 1,000 on Monday, is already down to 941.42.

Now in true style, someone needs to come up with a triple-leveraged short ETF to track this.

We also like this suggestion from Schaeffer research that the NASDAQ should've given the index a clever ticker, like FAIL.

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指数编得要跟上时代的步伐。昨天看的中小盘股的成分好象也改了,但看看,看看,看看人家。



Journalists Admit: We Screwed Up(Clusterstock)

A survey of  the nation's top financial journalists shows that many believe reporters seriously screwed up by failing to adequately warn about the financial excesses and investment bubbles that have pushed us into an economic crisis. 

Sixty-two of 100 journalists surveyed by Abrams Research, the research and consulting firm started by former MSNBC chief Dan Abrams, were critical of the media’s role in the crisis. (We’d really, really like to have a long conversation with that thirty-eight percent who think the media performed just swimmingly.)

When asked who should be blamed for the crisis, the journalists split evenly between the regulators and the banks. Only a couple of them thought the media was to blame.

Our favorite response came from someone who actually had a pretty well-balanced view of how we got in this mess.

“1) Banks that sold financial products but didn't understand them, 2) rated by rating agencies that didn't understand them, 3) not regulated by regulators that didn't understand them, 4) brokered by boiierrooms too greedy and evil to care about them to 5) consumers too desperate and stupid to understand them, without the help of 6) a media too busy reporting on Lindsay Lohan's nipple slips to report on them.”

This would be the perfect answer if we just added the Fed’s low interest rates, the Clinton-Bush program to increase home-ownership, cheap construction labor to build houses Americans won’t build and politically correct mortgage modeling.

It should be noted that the journalists are now very bearish. Asked when the recession would end, 31% said early 2010, 26% said mid-2010, 22% said January 2011, and 21% said even later.  The survey also asked where the DJIA would close on June 30, 2009. The average of the responses was 8639.12, or about 100 points lower than today. Since journalists screwed up so badly last time and are reliably contrary indicators, this might be a signal that we’re in for a quick recovery. 

Or maybe it just means the recession will last a very, very long time. After all, only 30% of those responding think that our economic crisis will someday be called a Great Depression.


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干嘛要怪媒体?!没道理的啊,有毛病!

媒体纯粹是迎合大众的需求,有什么需求我给你报道什么。你一天到晚唱空,大泡沫经济下谁看你的东西啊。影响心情。

所以怪谁都不能怪媒体,太无辜了。


Obama's Economic Speech








Full Text

Throughout America’s history, there have been some years that simply rolled into the next without much notice or fanfare. Then there are the years that come along once in a generation – the kind that mark a clean break from a troubled past, and set a new course for our nation.

This is one of those years.

We start 2009 in the midst of a crisis unlike any we have seen in our lifetime – a crisis that has only deepened over the last few weeks. Nearly two million jobs have now been lost, and on Friday we are likely to learn that we lost more jobs last year than at any time since World War II. Just in the past year, another 2.8 million Americans who want and need full-time work have had to settle for part-time jobs. Manufacturing has hit a twenty-eight year low. Many businesses cannot borrow or make payroll. Many families cannot pay their bills or their mortgage. Many workers are watching their life savings disappear. And many, many Americans are both anxious and uncertain of what the future will hold.

I don’t believe it’s too late to change course, but it will be if we don’t take dramatic action as soon as possible. If nothing is done, this recession could linger for years. The unemployment rate could reach double digits. Our economy could fall $1 trillion short of its full capacity, which translates into more than $12,000 in lost income for a family of four. We could lose a generation of potential and promise, as more young Americans are forced to forgo dreams of college or the chance to train for the jobs of the future. And our nation could lose the competitive edge that has served as a foundation for our strength and standing in the world.

In short, a bad situation could become dramatically worse.

This crisis did not happen solely by some accident of history or normal turn of the business cycle, and we won’t get out of it by simply waiting for a better day to come, or relying on the worn-out dogmas of the past. We arrived at this point due to an era of profound irresponsibility that stretched from corporate boardrooms to the halls of power in Washington, DC. For years, too many Wall Street executives made imprudent and dangerous decisions, seeking profits with too little regard for risk, too little regulatory scrutiny, and too little accountability. Banks made loans without concern for whether borrowers could repay them, and some borrowers took advantage of cheap credit to take on debt they couldn’t afford. Politicians spent taxpayer money without wisdom or discipline, and too often focused on scoring political points instead of the problems they were sent here to solve. The result has been a devastating loss of trust and confidence in our economy, our financial markets, and our government.

Now, the very fact that this crisis is largely of our own making means that it is not beyond our ability to solve. Our problems are rooted in past mistakes, not our capacity for future greatness. It will take time, perhaps many years, but we can rebuild that lost trust and confidence. We can restore opportunity and prosperity. We should never forget that our workers are still more productive than any on Earth. Our universities are still the envy of the world. We are still home to the most brilliant minds, the most creative entrepreneurs, and the most advanced technology and innovation that history has ever known. And we are still the nation that has overcome great fears and improbable odds. If we act with the urgency and seriousness that this moment requires, I know that we can do it again.

That is why I have moved quickly to work with my economic team and leaders of both parties on an American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan that will immediately jumpstart job creation and long-term growth.

It’s a plan that represents not just new policy, but a whole new approach to meeting our most urgent challenges. For if we hope to end this crisis, we must end the culture of anything goes that helped create it – and this change must begin in Washington. It is time to trade old habits for a new spirit of responsibility. It is time to finally change the ways of Washington so that we can set a new and better course for America.

There is no doubt that the cost of this plan will be considerable. It will certainly add to the budget deficit in the short-term. But equally certain are the consequences of doing too little or nothing at all, for that will lead to an even greater deficit of jobs, incomes, and confidence in our economy. It is true that we cannot depend on government alone to create jobs or long-term growth, but at this particular moment, only government can provide the short-term boost necessary to lift us from a recession this deep and severe. Only government can break the vicious cycles that are crippling our economy – where a lack of spending leads to lost jobs which leads to even less spending; where an inability to lend and borrow stops growth and leads to even less credit.

That is why we need to act boldly and act now to reverse these cycles. That’s why we need to put money in the pockets of the American people, create new jobs, and invest in our future. That’s why we need to re-start the flow of credit and restore the rules of the road that will ensure a crisis like this never happens again.

That work begins with this plan – a plan I am confident will save or create at least three million jobs over the next few years. It is not just another public works program. It’s a plan that recognizes both the paradox and the promise of this moment – the fact that there are millions of Americans trying to find work, even as, all around the country, there is so much work to be done. That’s why we’ll invest in priorities like energy and education; health care and a new infrastructure that are necessary to keep us strong and competitive in the 21st century. That’s why the overwhelming majority of the jobs created will be in the private sector, while our plan will save the public sector jobs of teachers, cops, firefighters and others who provide vital services.

To finally spark the creation of a clean energy economy, we will double the production of alternative energy in the next three years. We will modernize more than 75% of federal buildings and improve the energy efficiency of two million American homes, saving consumers and taxpayers billions on our energy bills. In the process, we will put Americans to work in new jobs that pay well and can’t be outsourced – jobs building solar panels and wind turbines; constructing fuel-efficient cars and buildings; and developing the new energy technologies that will lead to even more jobs, more savings, and a cleaner, safer planet in the bargain.

To improve the quality of our health care while lowering its cost, we will make the immediate investments necessary to ensure that within five years, all of America’s medical records are computerized. This will cut waste, eliminate red tape, and reduce the need to repeat expensive medical tests. But it just won’t save billions of dollars and thousands of jobs – it will save lives by reducing the deadly but preventable medical errors that pervade our health care system.

To give our children the chance to live out their dreams in a world that’s never been more competitive, we will equip tens of thousands of schools, community colleges, and public universities with 21st century classrooms, labs, and libraries. We’ll provide new computers, new technology, and new training for teachers so that students in Chicago and Boston can compete with kids in Beijing for the high-tech, high-wage jobs of the future.

To build an economy that can lead this future, we will begin to rebuild America. Yes, we’ll put people to work repairing crumbling roads, bridges, and schools by eliminating the backlog of well-planned, worthy and needed infrastructure projects. But we’ll also do more to retrofit America for a global economy. That means updating the way we get our electricity by starting to build a new smart grid that will save us money, protect our power sources from blackout or attack, and deliver clean, alternative forms of energy to every corner of our nation. It means expanding broadband lines across America, so that a small business in a rural town can connect and compete with their counterparts anywhere in the world. And it means investing in the science, research, and technology that will lead to new medical breakthroughs, new discoveries, and entire new industries.

Finally, this recovery and reinvestment plan will provide immediate relief to states, workers, and families who are bearing the brunt of this recession. To get people spending again, 95% of working families will receive a $1,000 tax cut – the first stage of a middle-class tax cut that I promised during the campaign and will include in our next budget. To help Americans who have lost their jobs and can’t find new ones, we’ll continue the bipartisan extensions of unemployment insurance and health care coverage to help them through this crisis. Government at every level will have to tighten its belt, but we’ll help struggling states avoid harmful budget cuts, as long as they take responsibility and use the money to maintain essential services like police, fire, education, and health care.

I understand that some might be skeptical of this plan. Our government has already spent a good deal of money, but we haven’t yet seen that translate into more jobs or higher incomes or renewed confidence in our economy. That’s why the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan won’t just throw money at our problems – we’ll invest in what works. The true test of the policies we’ll pursue won’t be whether they’re Democratic or Republican ideas, but whether they create jobs, grow our economy, and put the American Dream within reach of the American people.

Instead of politicians doling out money behind a veil of secrecy, decisions about where we invest will be made transparently, and informed by independent experts wherever possible. Every American will be able to hold Washington accountable for these decisions by going online to see how and where their tax dollars are being spent. And as I announced yesterday, we will launch an unprecedented effort to eliminate unwise and unnecessary spending that has never been more unaffordable for our nation and our children’s future than it is right now.

We have to make tough choices and smart investments today so that as the economy recovers, the deficit starts to come down. We cannot have a solid recovery if our people and our businesses don’t have confidence that we’re getting our fiscal house in order. That’s why our goal is not to create a slew of new government programs, but a foundation for long-term economic growth.

That also means an economic recovery plan that is free from earmarks and pet projects. I understand that every member of Congress has ideas on how to spend money. Many of these projects are worthy, and benefit local communities. But this emergency legislation must not be the vehicle for those aspirations. This must be a time when leaders in both parties put the urgent needs of our nation above our own narrow interests.

Now, this recovery plan alone will not solve all the problems that led us into this crisis. We must also work with the same sense of urgency to stabilize and repair the financial system we all depend on. That means using our full arsenal of tools to get credit flowing again to families and business, while restoring confidence in our markets. It means launching a sweeping effort to address the foreclosure crisis so that we can keep responsible families in their homes. It means preventing the catastrophic failure of financial institutions whose collapse could endanger the entire economy, but only with maximum protections for taxpayers and a clear understanding that government support for any company is an extraordinary action that must come with significant restrictions on the firms that receive support. And it means reforming a weak and outdated regulatory system so that we can better withstand financial shocks and better protect consumers, investors, and businesses from the reckless greed and risk-taking that must never endanger our prosperity again.

No longer can we allow Wall Street wrongdoers to slip through regulatory cracks. No longer can we allow special interests to put their thumbs on the economic scales. No longer can we allow the unscrupulous lending and borrowing that leads only to destructive cycles of bubble and bust.

It is time to set a new course for this economy, and that change must begin now. We should have an open and honest discussion about this recovery plan in the days ahead, but I urge Congress to move as quickly as possible on behalf of the American people. For every day we wait or point fingers or drag our feet, more Americans will lose their jobs. More families will lose their savings. More dreams will be deferred and denied. And our nation will sink deeper into a crisis that, at some point, we may not be able to reverse.

That is not the country I know, and it is not a future I will accept as President of the United States. A world that depends on the strength of our economy is now watching and waiting for America to lead once more. And that is what we will do.

It will not come easy or happen overnight, and it is altogether likely that things may get worse before they get better. But that is all the more reason for Congress to act without delay. I know the scale of this plan is unprecedented, but so is the severity of our situation. We have already tried the wait-and-see approach to our problems, and it is the same approach that helped lead us to this day of reckoning.

That is why the time has come to build a 21st century economy in which hard work and responsibility are once again rewarded. That’s why I’m asking Congress to work with me and my team day and night, on weekends if necessary, to get the plan passed in the next few weeks. That’s why I’m calling on all Americans – Democrats and Republicans – to put good ideas ahead of the old ideological battles; a sense of common purpose above the same narrow partisanship; and insist that the first question each of us asks isn’t “What’s good for me?” but “What’s good for the country my children will inherit?”

More than any program or policy, it is this spirit that will enable us to confront this challenge with the same spirit that has led previous generations to face down war, depression, and fear itself. And if we do – if we are able to summon that spirit again; if are able to look out for one another, and listen to one another, and do our part for our nation and for posterity, then I have no doubt that years from now, we will look back on 2009 as one of those years that marked another new and hopeful beginning for the United States of America. Thank you, God Bless You, and may God Bless America.

2009年1月8日星期四

Headline Roundup: 2009/01/08

外资套现中国银行类股 补自身窟窿(WSJ)
周三,美国银行将所持中国建设银行的股份从19%以上减持至16.6%,通过配售方式抛售了56亿股H股,套现28亿美元。
与此同时,据道琼斯通讯社(Dow Jones Newswires)周三见到的合约细则和一名知情人士透露的消息,香港富翁李嘉诚设立的一个基金会也正在配售20亿股中国银行股份有限公司股票,可能至多筹集5.24亿美元。李嘉诚基金会有限公司(Li Ka Shing Foundation)指出,该基金会仍持有30亿股中国银行股份,这是其长期持股的一部分,在很长时期内不会出售。

上周,瑞银(UBS AG)以8.08亿美元抛出了所持中国银行全部1.3%的股份。


苏格兰皇家银行拟脱手30亿美元中行股份(FT)

英国苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)正就出售该行在中国银行(BoC)的30亿美元持股进行讨论。目前越来越多外国投资者急于套现其增值不少的中国各银行股份。苏格兰皇家银行现由英国政府控制。

英国政府去年对苏格兰皇家银行纾困后,史蒂芬·赫斯特(Stephen Hester)出任该行首席执行官。他于本周抵达北京并与中国银行高管及监管者们进行了会晤,传达出该行可能脱手在中国银行4.3%持股的信号。

一名知情人士表示,“还没有做出任何最终决定。不过中方现已意识到苏格兰皇家银行在这个问题上的想法。出售股份是选择之一。” 苏格兰皇家银行拒绝置评。

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前期基金的套现压力出现之后,现在轮到股权投资了,这让人不由得放开胆子猜想这次金融危机的持续时间和严重程度。Use your illusion, yet it may go far beyond your imagination. 这让我不得不继续无可救药的看空。




萨蒂扬会计欺诈案震惊印度(WSJ)

印度一家最大的信息技术公司的董事长承认在重要财务业绩上造假,包括虚报10多亿美元现金余额;这一消息在印度企业界引发轩然大波,在曾经繁荣的经济眼下正在放缓之际,这一事件可能令投资者质疑公司业绩的真实性。


萨蒂扬软件技术有限公司(Satyam Computer Services Ltd.)创始人兼董事长拉贾(B. Ramalinga Raju)在辞职信中表示,他还夸大了过去几年的公司利润和债权规模,少报了公司负债。他说,事情最终发展到无法收场的地步,他自己也是骑虎难下。“萨蒂扬”在梵文中是真实的意思。

该消息引发了热门对印度企业界公司治理和会计标准的担忧,尤其是考虑到萨蒂扬是由普华永道(PriceWaterhouseCoopers)做的审计,而且直到最近该公司还拥有一些备受关注的独立董事,包括一位哈佛商学院教授。

普华永道表示,正在审查拉贾的声明,拒绝作出进一步评论。人们立即将这一事件和标志着美国公司治理和会计标准领域分水 的安然事件进行对比。


Satyam (SAY): Not PWC's Only India Snafu(Clusterstock)

Turns out, PWC's big Satyam miss isn't the agency's first big mess in India

Times Of India: Pricewaterhouse is already in deep trouble in relation to its suspect auditing of the collapsed Global Trust Bank, for which it is being probed by the disciplinary committee of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India (ICAI). 

In the GTB case, Pricewaterhouse was hauled up for alleged negligence in auditing of books of the bank and failing to detect huge levels of NPAs. The NPAs had accumulated due to massive exposure made by the erstwhile bank into the stock market which Pricewaterhouse is alleged to have overlooked.


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这个新闻绝对够爆炸。1 billion的数目在好日子下可以瞒天过海,可在坏日子里,就没那么幸运了。PWC这下麻烦了,有的折腾了。

巴非特那句话太经典了:“等退潮后,我们就可以知道哪些人在裸泳了。”没穿泳裤的赶紧给自己画一个先吧。哈哈。


俄乌两国允许欧盟监督天然气输送(WSJ)


俄罗斯和乌克兰已同意让国际专家监督向欧盟输送天然气的管道,此举为重开天然气供应铺平了道路。但这项交易是在俄罗斯停止通过乌克兰输气,欧盟一些国家越来越多的学校和工厂被迫关闭之际达成的。

监督协议的达成是这两个前苏联国家今年仲冬出现价格纠纷后关系有所改善的第一个迹象。切断对欧盟天然气供应的结果重新唤起了对欧盟能源安全的担忧,令受到严重影响的国家中的数十万人被迫想方设法为其家庭供暖。

包括德国总理默克尔(Angela Merkel)在内的一些欧洲领导人周三纷纷打电话给俄罗斯总理普金(Vladimir Putin)和乌克兰总理季莫申科(Yulia Tymoshenko),要求他们解决争端。


事情继续向解决的方向发展,俄罗斯被油价折腾的要死还这么猖狂,真是服了你了。牛B!但在人家给你台阶下的时候还是把面子给自己留好吧,扯了脸皮这事就没那么好玩了。





Naughty boys need love too.

CM519~Porn-Posters.jpg

Hey, if the auto industry can get a bailout, why not the p*rn industry? In case you haven't heard, both the king of controversy Larry Flynt and Joe Francis (famed creater of the inspirational and thought provoking "Girls Gone Wild" dvd series) have stepped up with their hands out to the government on behalf of the adult industry as a whole.

They're asking for $5 billion to help (ahem) stimulate the industry because the sale of X rated movies is down a whopping 22% from a year ago. Apparently the dip in the economy isn't just affecting people's wallets. Even the p*rn industry has gone limp.

According to Flynt, "It's time for Congress to rejuvenate the sexual appetite of America."

C'mon Congress.....rub one out for XXX.

哈哈,色情业怎么能错过这个热衷于BAIL OUT的时代呢。

Bloomberg interview with former Paulson & Co's Paolo Pellegrini

2009年1月4日星期日

blog break

Actually it's hard to keep updating with the daily news on my blog during the end of semester while there are tons of examinations to take care of. And i guess i have to take a break until i get through the hard time . I'll start again around 14th Jan.
I'm writing this cuz i noticed just now that there are some visitors to this blog and, as a guy with strong responsibility, i have to explain this to you guys. thank you very much for your visiting.
i hope you enjoy it. i'll come back soon.

2009年1月3日星期六

Headline Roundup:2009/01/03


新年乐观情绪推升道指突破9000点
美国股市周五飙升,道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数上涨逾250点,为2008年11月以来首次收于9000点上方。交易人士预计通用汽车(General Motors)和美国铝业(Alcoa)等一些2008年表现欠佳的个股会在2009年出现好转。

道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数收盘涨258.3点,至9034.69点,涨幅2.94%,为2008年11月5日以来的最高收盘点位。纳斯达克综合指数涨55.18点,至1632.21点,涨幅3.5%。标准普尔500指数涨28.55点,至931.8点,涨幅3.16%。

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短暂的乐观真让人快乐。道指重新站上了9000点,但我依旧对后市悲观,不过起码中国市场新年首个交易日预计会有很不错的表现。

Most mutual-fund investors are terrible at timing the market: They sell when they should be buying and buy when they should be selling. So it's encouraging that, after five years of investing in overvalued markets, mutual fund investors ran for the hills last year.

These charts, published by QVM Group based on data from ICI, are through October 2008. Needless to say, stock-fund outflows increased in November (and moderated in December, when the market stabilized).

If the stock market crashes to a new low in Q1 or Q2, which we think is more likely than not, look for outflows to soar. If the current rally continues, which is also plausible, look for flows to stabilize and then eventually reverse.

mutualfundflowsoct081.jpgmutualfundflowsoct082.jpgmutualfundflowsoct20083.jpg


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这组图表很有意思。在人们恐慌时买入,在人们贪婪时卖出。记得刚开始了解市场时,就看到过这句话。那么,以图为鉴,如此恐慌,难道不该买入么?!哈哈,我站着说话不腰疼。


Accountants needed at the Treasury

With the announcement of its $6 billion investment to stabilize GMACthe Treasury Department has now spent or committed more money than Congress has allocated to its financial rescue program, effectively making more promises than it can afford to keep.

The scorecard: Congress gave Treasury $350 billion; Treasury has allocated $354.4 billion. The department acknowledges that it needs Congress to approve the second half of the $700 billion rescue package simply to meet its commitments, let alone to address new emergencies. If Congress blocks the additional funding, as some members say they want to do, Treasury could be forced to break promises.

The situation gives increased leverage to those in Congress demanding concessions from Treasury, including greater transparency, restrictions on the use of the money and an ironclad guarantee that a significant portion is spent to reduce foreclosure.


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当时计划制定出来就没考虑到GM这档子事,也辛苦财政部了,两头不是人,搞不好这钱借给GMAC也打水漂了。



俄罗斯将获乌克兰15亿美元天然气债务款

  中国网1月3日讯 据俄新社报道,俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司发言人库普里亚诺夫2日称,俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司将于1月11日收到乌克兰15亿美元的天然气债务款。

  库普里诺夫称:“考虑到节日因素,我们将于1月11日收到那笔款项。乌克兰仍欠我们6.14亿美元滞纳金和罚款。”

  俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司1月1日强化了其在向乌克兰供应天然气价格方面的立场,称它2009年将以每1000立方米418美元的欧洲市场价向乌克兰出售天然气。俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司先前表示,愿以每1000立方米250美元的价格向乌克兰出售天然气的建议,但乌克兰最初称,它只愿意以每1000立方米201美元的价格购买俄罗斯天然气,但它随后表示,如果俄罗斯同意支付更多的过路费,那么它将接受每1000立方米235美元的价格。俄罗斯去年向乌克兰供应天然气的价格是每1000立方米179.5美元。

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和解在即,我已经看到天然气危机消除的曙光了。


以军空袭加沙已造成430人死亡2200人受伤

  1月2日,加沙地带北部遭轰炸后冒起滚滚浓烟。以军对加沙地带的空袭当日进入第七天,目前以军空袭已在加沙地带造成至少410人死亡、近2000人受伤

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别被和平的表象误导了,巴以之间几个月的宁静曾经一度让人们安心对付经济危机。而如今,巴以冲突“回来了”

为死难者哀悼,祈祷和平。

调查称中国人平均用44%休息时间上网

  中新网1月2日电 一项针对16个国家2.7万网民的调查显示,中国人平均每日花掉最多的休息时间上网。参加调查的中国人每天花掉44%的休息时间上网,这个数几乎达到了丹麦人平均上网时间的三倍。但调查同时也显示,中国人在网上交友的热情较低。

  据英国广播公司报道,就整体来看,25岁以下的受调查者平均每天花36%的休息时间上网。美国和英国低于平均水平,分别是30%和28%。而在中国,年轻人却把50%的空余时间都泡在网上。

  尽管中国年轻人都钟爱上网,但对与网友见面的热情却相差很大,态度相对保守。调查显示,平均60%的调查者有过与只在网上聊过一次的网友见面的经历。

  中国人在所有国家中最为保守,只占到40%,而德国人则最钟情见网友,超过四分之三的德国网民有过与网友会面的经历。

  英国的家庭主妇们是网络的一大生力军。这个特别群体的上网时间竟超过了中国人,平均每日花47%的休息时间在网络上。

  这次调查由全球市场资讯集团TNS发起,共对16个国家的2.7万名18至55岁网络用户进行了调查。TNS董事总经理赫默斯顿指出,调查显示,网上交友越来越得到认同,并被大多数人认为是很正式的社交活动。

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我是一个比较鲜活的例子。




最后插播图片一张,SOROS爷

爷欢度新年!宝刀不老啊!


George Soros