2009年1月9日星期五

Headline Roundup:2009/01/09

英国央行降息50个基点(FT)

英国央行(BoE)昨日再次将利率下调0.5个百分点,至历史最低水平。该行表示,世界经济似乎正在经历异常剧烈的同步衰退。

1.5%的利率已是1694年英国央行成立以来的最低水平,但许多经济学家依然担心英国央行做得还不够,将会在今年晚些时候被迫追随美联储(Fed)采取非传统举措。

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降息的新闻这段时间已经看得有点无聊了,但这条还是能让人激动一下。历史最低水平!看这篇报道后有个评论说英镑触底,我觉得还有下行的空间,起码利率层面上还有下调空间。我也就随便猜猜。之前有段时间玩儿过模拟外汇,那时对汇率特敏感,现在就当看热闹了。



韩国双龙汽车申请法院接管 上汽持股51%(WSJ)

国双龙汽车(Ssangyong Motor Co.)周五称,该公司已经申请法院接管。这是公司面对经济减速试图进行重组的最新努力。按销量计算,双龙汽车是韩国第五大汽车厂商。

在韩国的司法体系中,此举仅次于破产。在接管过程中,法院将决定是否救助以及如何救助这家公司。由于销量下滑,该公司面临现金短缺的局面,无法支付工资和贷款。

如果法院决定让这家公司破产,那么双龙汽车将成为在此次经济危机中倒闭的首家韩国大公司。

双龙汽车股票周五已经在韩国证交所停牌。

中国上海汽车集团股份有限公司(SAIC Motor Co., 简称:上海汽车)持有双龙汽车51%的股份。双龙汽车上月曾向母公司呼吁提供资金。上周上海汽车提供了4,500万美元的注资,但这大大低于国营韩国产业银行(Korea Development Bank)等债权人所估计的2亿多美元。

上海汽车不愿再提供更多的资金,除非代表双龙汽车工人的工会接受重组公司的计划。

双龙汽车是韩国最小的一家国内汽车制造商,主要生产运动型多用途车。去年12月,其在韩国的汽车销量下降了45%,大大高于韩国整体汽车市场23%的降幅。


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上汽也太杠了吧?!这事出来有段时间了,之前韩国方面一直要求应该有母公司先提供救助,并将在母公司无法解决问题的情况下出手救双龙。一直以为上汽方面会弄出些东西来保护自己的投资。没想到硬是要和韩国政府死磕。结果玩儿了个搏弈论里特经典的一个结果:双败。都等着对方救,结果搞到这般地步。



NASDAQ Creates Index To Track Bailed-Out Companies(Clusterstock)

This is fun. The folks over at the NASDAQ have created a new index, OMX Government Relief (^QGRI), to track firms that have been bailed out by the government. The index will track, with equal weight, companies of at least $1 billion market cap, that have come to Washington cap in hand. It's mostly TARP companies, but not necessarily all. The index, which was set at 1,000 on Monday, is already down to 941.42.

Now in true style, someone needs to come up with a triple-leveraged short ETF to track this.

We also like this suggestion from Schaeffer research that the NASDAQ should've given the index a clever ticker, like FAIL.

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指数编得要跟上时代的步伐。昨天看的中小盘股的成分好象也改了,但看看,看看,看看人家。



Journalists Admit: We Screwed Up(Clusterstock)

A survey of  the nation's top financial journalists shows that many believe reporters seriously screwed up by failing to adequately warn about the financial excesses and investment bubbles that have pushed us into an economic crisis. 

Sixty-two of 100 journalists surveyed by Abrams Research, the research and consulting firm started by former MSNBC chief Dan Abrams, were critical of the media’s role in the crisis. (We’d really, really like to have a long conversation with that thirty-eight percent who think the media performed just swimmingly.)

When asked who should be blamed for the crisis, the journalists split evenly between the regulators and the banks. Only a couple of them thought the media was to blame.

Our favorite response came from someone who actually had a pretty well-balanced view of how we got in this mess.

“1) Banks that sold financial products but didn't understand them, 2) rated by rating agencies that didn't understand them, 3) not regulated by regulators that didn't understand them, 4) brokered by boiierrooms too greedy and evil to care about them to 5) consumers too desperate and stupid to understand them, without the help of 6) a media too busy reporting on Lindsay Lohan's nipple slips to report on them.”

This would be the perfect answer if we just added the Fed’s low interest rates, the Clinton-Bush program to increase home-ownership, cheap construction labor to build houses Americans won’t build and politically correct mortgage modeling.

It should be noted that the journalists are now very bearish. Asked when the recession would end, 31% said early 2010, 26% said mid-2010, 22% said January 2011, and 21% said even later.  The survey also asked where the DJIA would close on June 30, 2009. The average of the responses was 8639.12, or about 100 points lower than today. Since journalists screwed up so badly last time and are reliably contrary indicators, this might be a signal that we’re in for a quick recovery. 

Or maybe it just means the recession will last a very, very long time. After all, only 30% of those responding think that our economic crisis will someday be called a Great Depression.


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干嘛要怪媒体?!没道理的啊,有毛病!

媒体纯粹是迎合大众的需求,有什么需求我给你报道什么。你一天到晚唱空,大泡沫经济下谁看你的东西啊。影响心情。

所以怪谁都不能怪媒体,太无辜了。


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